Free Headers: Loons head to Houston for another must-win

8.15%. That's the chance that the Loons have to make the playoffs, at least according to one source.

That's slightly higher than the chances that a fair coin would come up heads four times in a row, via random flips. It's right about 1-in-12. And given the Loons season - no league wins at home for 182 days, and now just two wins in their past 19 league games - you'd have to say that 1-in-12 odds seem pretty high.

The Loons don't have an easy schedule to close the year. Houston, LAFC, and San Jose are all playoff teams, and Sporting Kansas City is a slightly improved version of itself from the first half of the year (though they'll still win the Wooden Spoon).

The other contenders for the final playoff spot, though, aren't in any better shape. The Galaxy (40 points, 8th place) only have three games left. Colorado (39 points, 9th) has four playoff teams on its schedule. Real Salt Lake (36 points) has two playoff teams, and then a potential six-point final game against the Galaxy.

The two that are tied with Minnesota on 34 points, San Diego and Portland, are in the same boat as the Loons - three playoff teams out of four remaining games.

The first tiebreaker is wins, and Minnesota has the same number of wins as San Diego, and is a win behind Portland, so they can probably catch those two teams easily. Above them, though, they're trailing RSL by two wins and Colorado by three - part of the reason that they might need to win all four of their remaining games, despite all of the teams ahead of them being deeply flawed.

Again, the chances aren't great, exactly. But given this season, that they have a chance at all - with four games to go - is about the best the Loons could have hoped for.

Gophers lose at Wisconsin, doomed to wander Earth in want

I'm saddened to report that the Gophers lost to Wisconsin last Sunday, 1-0 in Madison, losing to a late second-half goal in what appears to have been a pretty even match.

And so, the wait for an Iowa/Wisconsin double goes on for the Gophers, who are now down to 10th in the conference with two games to go, after coming back on Thursday to tie #12 Washington 1-1. Only eight teams make the Big Ten tournament; Minnesota probably needs to beat Oregon and Illinois (both not great) to close the season, and hope for the best.

Podcasts

This week's podcast is a listener mailbag (as a reminder, if you too want to ask questions for mailbag episodes, you can subscribe at one of the top two subscription tiers.)

And if you like watching people podcast via Zoom, I was on the Loons Matchday Preview podcast this week, where Jonathan Harrison and Manny Lagos were so positive that it made me look like Mr. Cynical. And of course I would never, ever be cynical about Minnesota sports.